Obama’s most commonly used words:
Tag cloud based on speeches, diplomatic appearances, and public statements.
via The Atlantic
Archive for April, 2009
27
Apr
09
What did he say?
So, President Obama shook hands with another world leader, one the US generally dislikes. Has something like this taken place before? Hmm… I’d go with a solid yes on that one. (There’s even a smile too – gasp!)
Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong in China
According to Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight, a model can be built to predict when each state will legalize gay marriage – in the end, they all do. His model is based on three distinct variables:
1. The year in which the amendment was first voted upon;
2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives;
3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.
Silver states:
These variables collectively account for about three-quarters of the variance in the performance of marriage bans in different states. The model predicts, for example, that a marriage ban in California in 2008 would have passed with 52.1 percent of the vote, almost exactly the fraction actually received by Proposition 8. Unsurprisingly, there is a very strong correspondence between the religiosity of a state and its propensity to ban gay marriage, with a particular “bonus” effect depending on the number of white evangelicals in the state. Marriage bans, however, are losing ground at a rate of slightly less than 2 points per year. So, for example, we’d project that a state in which a marriage ban passed with 60 percent of the vote year would only have 58 percent of its voters approve the ban year.
According to this model, each state will eventually grant marriage to same-sex couples. When will your state change?
The model predicts further, that by 2012, about half of the nation’s states would vote against a marriage ban, effectively granting same-sex couples marriage rights in at least 25 of the 50 states.
Text breakdown of the States:
2009 (now)
- Vermont
- New Hampshire
- Massachusetts
- Maine
- Rhode Island
- Connecticut
- Nevada
- Washington
- Alaska
- New York
- Oregon
2010
- California
- Hawaii
- Montana
- New Jersey
- Colorado
2011
- Wyoming
- Delaware
- Idaho
- Arizona
2012
- Wisconsin
- Pennsylvania
- Maryland
- Illinois
2013
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Iowa
- Ohio
- Utah
- Florida
2014
- New Mexico
- North Dakota
- Nebraska
- South Dakota
2015
- Indiana
- Virginia
- West Virginia
- Kansas
2016
- Missouri
2018
- Texas
2019
- North Carolina
- Louisiana
- Georgia
2020
- Kentucky
2021
- South Carolina
- Oklahoma
2022
- Tennessee
- Arkansas
2023
- Alabama
2024
- Mississippi
09
Apr
09
Gov’t Cybersecurity Watchdog
Greg Ransom over at Taking Hayek Serioulsly is running a poll where you can pick the ‘Top Hayekian Public Intellectuals in America.’ There is a long and growing list of names to choose from, so be sure and make your voice heard.
Vote here!
04
Apr
09
Shifting religious identities
A new study shows Americans’ shifting religious choices, including a rising number of people with no religion. Check out this fascinating interactive graph from USA Today.
The graph shows data collected from over 18 years by the American Religious Identification Survey. It is definitely worth looking at if you have any interest in sociology or human geography.
The recession has sent the unemployment numbers in the US skyrocketing. In whole number terms, jobs lost have reached much higher than many anticipated and the numbers show the US has been hit far worse than most other countries – including the UK and France.
Historically, the UK and France boast high unemployment, usually much higher than the US. The chart above (with recent estimates) shows that US unemployment has surpassed the UK and edged very close to France. The whole number difference however paints the biggest picture, the US has lost many more jobs, this is even more concerning since job losses are accelerating far more quickly in the US than in other countries and the trend has not yet begun to bottom-out.
Keep in mind though, there are still jobs out there. People must now become more resourceful, more willing to adjust, to move, or change fields. They must be more open to retraining and change than they maybe were in the past.
Also an interesting read: The List: The Best Places to Lose Your Job
Hat-tip, FP Passport
